Benford testing the Egypt vote

Mitch Nolan writes:

I'm not a statistician, but I'm hunting at the empire balloting results using Benford investigating (the name of which I meet scholarly today, to monish you of what a initiate I am). First, here are the authorised results in Arabic. And here's an summary Google spreadsheet in English (the first tender with the original accumulation is locked, another pages are editable).

Nolan may not be a statistician, but I know nothing about Egypt. So I'm meet posting his drawing below without comment.

OK, so here's what Nolan sent me. Make of it what you will:

Distribution of chase drawing in the "valid" balloting results:

1 x 2 xx 3 xxx 4 5 xxxxx 6 xxxx 7 xxxxxx 8 xxxxx 9 x 0 xx

(Lots of 7s...)

Distribution of chase drawing in the "invalid" balloting results:

1 xx 2 xxxx 3 xx 4 xx 5 x 6 xxxxxx 7 xxxxx 8 xxx 9 xxxx 0

(No ammo numbers)

Valid and invalid, combined:

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxx 2 xxxxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxxx 4 xxxxxxxxxxxx 5 xxxxxxxxxxxxxx 6 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 7 xxxxxxxxxxxxxx 8 xxxxxxxxxxxxxx 9 xxxxxxxxxx 0 xxxxxx

(6 zeros, 16 sixes?)

Valid, invalid, and yes votes, combined (still hunting at chase digits):

1 xxxxxxxxx 2 xxxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxx 4 xxxxxxxx 5 xxxxxxxx 6 xxxxxxxxxxxx 7 xxxxxxxxxxxx 8 xxxxxxxxxxxx 9 xxxxxxxx 0 xxx

(Four nowadays as many 6s, 7s, and 8s as 0s?)

I'm feat to resile over the no votes, because those would meet be a calculation of legal votes harmful yes votes, and not drawing picked out of the air in some case. Sticking with that accumulation ordered of valid, invalid and yes votes, here are whatever another results:

Leading digit:

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 2 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxxxxxx 4 xxxxxxx 5 xxxxxxx 6 xxxxxxxxxxxxx 7 xxxxxx 8 xxxxxx 9 xxxxxx 0

(Those 6s pop discover a bit...)

Leading member digits:

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 2 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 4 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 5 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 6 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 7 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 8 xxxxxxxxxxxxxx 9 xxxxxxxxxxxxxx 0 xxxxxxxxxx

(Seems ok?)

Leading threesome digits:

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 2 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 4 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 5 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 6 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 7 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 8 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 9 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

(Not trusty if the partiality toward modify drawing between 2 and 8 means anything.)

Trailing member digits:

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 2 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 4 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 5 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 6 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 7 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 8 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 9 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 0 xxxxxxxxxxx

(A bit of a partiality toward 8s, but not a Brobdingnagian one.)

Second digit:

1 xxxxx 2 xxxxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxxxx 4 xxxxxxxxxxxx 5 xxxxxxxxxx 6 xxxxxx 7 xxxxxxxxxx 8 xxxxxxxx 9 xxxxxxxx 0 xxxxxxxxxx

(Seems ok?)

Third digit:

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxx 2 xxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxxxxx 4 xxxxxxxxxxx 5 xxxxxx 6 xxxxxxxxx 7 xxx 8 xxxxxxxxxxxxx 9 xxxxxxxxxx 0 xxxxx

(What happened to the 7s?)

Third digit, excluding the quaternary 3-digit drawing in the ordered (where the third member is also the terminal digit):

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxx 2 xxxxxxxx 3 xxxxxxxxx 4 xxxxxxxxxxx 5 xxxxxx 6 xxxxxxxx 7 x 8 xxxxxxxxxxxx 9 xxxxxxxxxx 0 xxxxx

(NOW what happened to the 7s?)

OK, it's me (Andy) again. Let me repeat that I did not do the psychotherapy nor do I hit some opinions on it. I meet desired to pass it on, and to Except to feature that I think it's a beatific abstract that accumulation and statistical ideas are decent so generally accessible.