The another day I posted whatever evidence that, still things utilised to be, congressional elections are progressively nationalized, and it's time to retire Tip O'Neill's slogan, "all persuasion is local." (The discussion started with a remark by O.G. blogger Mickey Kaus; I also vindicate ground I disagree with Jonathan Bernstein's disagreement with me.)
Alan Abramowitz writes in with an psychotherapy of National Election Study from a recent essay of his:
Average Correlations of House and senate Votes with Presidential Job Evaluations by Decade
Decade House.Vote Senate.Vote 1972-1980 .31 .28 1982-1990 .39 .42 1992-2000 .43 .50 2002-2008 .51 .57
This indeed seems like strong evidence of nationalization, consistent with another things we've seen. I also like Abramowitz's secret-weapon-style analysis, breaking the data up by decennium rather than throwing every the data in at once and disagreeable to judge a trend.
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