Does July 4th Make Children Become Republicans?

This essay investigates the role of Fourth of July celebrations in shaping semipolitical views and activity in the United States. We think the effect of Fourth of July during immatureness on partisanship and status after in life. Our method uses regular downfall data from 1920-1990 to proxy for exogenous variation in status on Fourth of July as a child. The estimates imply that chronicle without fall on Fourth of July in immatureness increase the likelihood of identifying with the Republicans as an adult, voting for the politico but not the Democratic candidate, and citizen turnout. Our findings are significant: one Fourth of July without fall before geezerhood 18 increases the likelihood of identifying as a politico at geezerhood 40 by 2 percent, the deal of grouping voting for the politico politician at geezerhood 40 by 4 percent, and the deal of grouping motion out to balloting at geezerhood 40 by 0.9 percent. The grounds is conformable with immatureness experience having foundational effects inferior hypersensitive to grown semipolitical influence. It also suggests that there is semipolitical congruence between loyalty promoted on Fourth of July and politico beliefs, as well as Fourth of July transmitting a non-partisan civic duty to vote.

From this paper (pdf) by Andreas Madestam and king Yanagizawa-Drott.  (Hat counsel to Patrick Flavin.)  The system is that on sunny July 4th days, grouping are more probable to move in July 4th celebrations.  Here are some other findings from the paper:

• There is a contemporaneous relation between rain-free July 4th chronicle and band finding in adulthood, not just in childhood.
• Sunny chronicle on July 2, 3, 5, and 6 don’t manifest this aforementioned relationship.
• The relation with band finding appear most celebrity for children ages 7-10 and 11-14.
• The relation with band finding are apparent in predominantly politico counties, but not Democratic counties.  The relation with portion are apparent in both types of counties.
• The relation with band finding are present for relationship cohorts from apiece decennium between 1920-70, but not cohorts from after decades.  Madestam and Yanagizawa-Drott declare that status in July 4th celebrations haw have declined for after cohorts as conception of a fall in social capital.

In sum, if you were dropped before 1970, and experienced sunny July 4th chronicle between the ages of 7-14, and lived in a predominantly politico county, you haw be more politico as a consequence.

When I first feature the abstract, I did not believe the findings at all.  I doubted whether July 4th celebrations were all that influential.  And the effects seem to occur too primeval in the chronicle cycle: would an 8-year-old would be strained politically?  Doesn’t the average 8-year-old tending more about fireworks than patriotism?

But the essay does a lot of spadework and, ultimately, I was mitt intellection “Huh, maybe this is true.”  I’m ease not certain, but it was worth a blog post.

Comments?