Political Implications of the Census

I desired to study up on Andy's post yesterday about the semipolitical implications of redistricting mass the newborn census. As his been reportable in the media, if Obama carries the literal aforementioned states he did in 2008 again in 2012, he would modify up with sextet fewer electoral votes. Interestingly, though, this means that if you rank the states in order of largest edge of conclusion for Obama, the aforementioned state that guaranteed him the tenure in 2008, Colorado, would provide him the tenure in 2012, although with bleak minimum of 270 electoral votes (instead of 276 in 2008). Put added way, Obama could ease be reelected without success Virginia, Ohio, Florida, the 2nd CD in Nebraska, Indiana, or North Carolina. Moreover, it is land that there are today feat to be more House way in states that run to beam more Republicans to the House of Representatives.

That existence said, I desired to address the larger implications of the place to which Andy linked by Kaiser Fung. Fung raises an engrossing question: module grouping who run to balloting for Democrats in Beantown advise voting for Democrats if they advise to Arizona? This identify of discourse water low a more generalized collection of what semipolitical scientists call the existence "cross-pressured", or when one's socio-demographic characteristics near digit in assorted directions politically. Consider simply a blue-collar miss experience in Cambridge, MA. Her co-workers are probable to be primarily Democrats, and her metropolis neighbors are probable to be primarily Democrats. Thus, both of these demographic characteristics near her towards supporting the Democratic party.* Move the aforementioned person to a exurb of Phoenix, Arizona, and dead her neighbors haw near her towards the politico band while her co-workers pull her towards the Democratic party. Now she is "cross-pressured". Ted Brader, Andrew Therriault and I hit some new impact on cross-pressured citizens. We find that in both the United States and Poland, cross-pressured citizens are inferior probable to impart feelings of partisanship, inferior probable to advise in elections, and modify inferior probable to be fascinated in politics. This suggests that Fung haw be overstating the ability of hardcore Democrats in Beantown or Pittsburgh to advise behaving the aforementioned artefact politically once they advise to Arizona.

That existence said, what I hit not yet seen is a beatific explanation of exactly who is business for the growth in accumulation in the South-West of the United States. It haw be the housing that it is Northerners and Easterners who are agitated to the South-West. However, it haw also be the housing that the Latino accumulation of these states is ontogeny faster than non-Latino populations in the rest of the country. If this is the case, then there is inferior of a quantity of the cross-pressure execution that I described in the preceding paragraph dynamical people's semipolitical behavior, as we do not wait members of a ontogeny Latino accumulation to grappling assorted cross-pressure from the existing Latino population.** Then we would be way towards a scenario much like the digit Ezra psychoanalyst suggested: more electoral votes in states that run to balloting politico today, but a hastening of the period in which these states (read especially: Texas, Arizona) haw no longer be reliably Republican.

Furthermore, it is not a priori famous that every of the newborn House way in the South-West module automatically go to politico candidates. For example, as the AP reports today

Boyd Richie, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, said Hispanic and black accumulation growth statement for the added seats, and he vowed to fisticuffs for a redistricting plan that takes their drawing into account.

While politico domination of the Texas legislature belike makes this implausible to happen, it is essential to advert that the oppositeness gist haw be at impact in the North-East: Democratic legislatures haw essay to make trusty that way that are lost are way currently held by Republicans.

All this is to feature that the ultimate narrative of "Republicans gain from counting redistricting" sure masks a more Byzantine reality, and it is feat to take quite a while before we can indite the test chapter on the semipolitical implications of the 2010 census.

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*There are assorted theories about the execution by which this gist works. It haw be that it is actually the impact of talking to co-workers and neighbors, or it haw be that the citizen knows that the Democratic band shares more of her interests as a chromatic collar miss and as a resident of Cambridge. For those who are interested, we module be presenting a essay at the Midwest Political Science Association 2011 Annual Meeting on this question.

**There are of instruction scenarios that could violate this expectation, much as if a large accord of newborn Mexican immigrants arrived in an Atlantic that had primarily been populated by Puerto Ricans. That existence said, in generalized we should not wait cross-pressures to change much when a accord grows in filler organically, and sure not as compared to agitated from digit positioning to added with assorted semipolitical proclivities.